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The pound received a huge boost this morning after the latest retails sales figures smashed the predicted level of 0.4%, coming in at 1.4%, helping sterling to rise across the board.
GBP/USD graph
With concerns mounting over Article 50 being triggered next week and the impact it will have on the value of the pound, today's retail figures will give investors some extra confidence and once again show the UK economy's resilient side.
Next week will lead us into the unknown and it is almost impossible to predict what will happen in the FX markets.
Some forecasts are suggesting the pound will lose ground the moment Article 50 is triggered and that we could see GBP/USD drop below $1.20. Others are saying that once Article 50 in invoked it will provide some clarity for the markets and could give the pound a boost.
My opinion is somewhere in the middle. I think Article 50 has already been priced into the value of the pound so I doubt we will see the pound plummet. I do think it will provide some clarity for investors but it is unlikely the pound will rise on the back of it.
We have known for months that Article 50 will be triggered at the end of March and we also know Theresa May will push ahead with a "hard" Brexit. Unless we are thrown a curve ball between now and Wednesday, Article 50 is not going to come as a surprise so there is a chance it will actually have very little impact on the pound or FX market.
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