Friday 28 October 2016

Is the pound going to continue to fall against the dollar?

Since my post yesterday morning the pound has been falling against the U.S. dollar. As I predicted, the spike we witnessed after the UK GDP reading didn't last very long, and after climbing to a fresh seven day high of $1.2266 the GBP/USD cross has been in free-fall. At the time of writing GBP/USD is trading at $1.2126 (mid-market)

GBP/USD graph




With the better than expected GDP reading failing to lift investor confidence, it is becoming increasingly obvious that positive economic data is going to have very little impact on the pounds
value.

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The political uncertainty surrounding the UK's exit from the EU looks set to carry on, and until Article 50 is invoked and we get a clearer picture about any potential deal I think the pound will continue to struggle.

Sterling has lost around twenty per cent against the U.S. dollar since the referendum result and I for one would not be surprised if the GBP/USD cross fell even further.

There is a real possibility we could see a fresh thirty-one year low in the coming weeks, especially if the U.S. Federal Reserve increase interest rates before the end of the year.

If the UK government push ahead with a so called "hard Brexit" and the Fed decide to hike rates in December, GBP/USD could finds itself trading around $1.15 in the not to distant future.

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