Thursday, 18 August 2016

GBP/USD exchange rate jumps on the back of lates retail sales reading


Yesterday saw the GBP/USD cross hold around $1.30 for the second consecutive day, with the currency pair bouncing between $1.2997 and $1.3051 throughout the course of the London trading session.

All eyes then turned to the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes yesterday evening, as investors looked for any clues as to when the U.S. central bank would look to raise their benchmark rate for a second time.  

The minutes showed that policy-makers were divided over when the next rate hike should come with some Fed officials saying that current economic conditions would soon warrant another hike, while others still thought that more economic data and further improvement was needed.   

The result had very little impact on the FX market overnight and as the open of the London session approached the GBP/USD cross was trading around $1.3060.

The minutes confirmed the split messages we have heard from some Fed officials over the past couple days, so as it stands there is still a chance we could see the Janet Yellen and Co take action at their next meeting in September.  

Another boost for the UK economy.


Following a higher inflation reading on Tuesday, a drop in unemployment yesterday, this morning saw another positive data release for the UK with retail sales figures for July coming in much higher that forecast.

Many analysts had predicted July’s retail sales reading to improve to 0.1% (following Junes reading of -0.9%), but figures published this morning by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that sales had increased to 1.4%.

The news gave the pound a huge lift and in the minutes after the data release the GBP/USD cross had risen to $1.3163, the highest we have seen the currency pair since the 7th August.

 

GBP/USD graph after this mornings retail figures.

 
 

More importantly it means the pound has now gained nearly three cents against the dollar since Monday when the GBP/USD cross was sitting down at $1.2874.  

The last three days have shown that it might not be all doom and gloom for the UK economy following Britain’s decision to leave the EU on the 23rd June.

It is still too early to say if the UK economy and the pound will recover back to pre-referendum levels anytime soon, especially as the government still need to trigger article 50 and negotiate our exit package.  

However, the early signs are better than expected and if eco-stats continue to improve we could quickly see the pound claw back some lost ground, which could push GBP/USD back above $1.35.

Buying or selling dollars?

If you have a requirement to buy or sell dollars in the coming months and want to ensure you are making the most from your transfer, contact me today for free, no-obligation consultation by completing the contact form on the right hand side of the page or by calling me directly on 0044 (0) 1442 892 065.

Friday, 29 July 2016

GBP/USD exchange rate rises after poor U.S. GDP data.

The GBP/USD cross rose over a cent during today's London trading session after the U.S posted a weaker than forecast Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading.

Figures released this afternoon (Friday) showed the U.S economy grew at a slower rate than predicted during the second quarter and caused the dollar weaken across the board.

The report published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed U.S GDP increased at a 1.2% annual rate against a predicted level of 2.6%.

The release had an immediate impact on GBP/USD cross, with the currency pair climbing from $1.3160 to almost $1.33 as the graph below shows.

GBP/USD graph



Today's U.S data will come as a huge blow to the Federal Reserve, with many within the market expecting the central bank to raise interest rates at their September meeting. The latest GDP reading is sure to reduce expectations the Fed will take action in six weeks' time and could help limit the potential losses the pound faces when the Bank of England meet next week.

All eyes will now turn to Thursday's Bank of England meeting, where it is looking like the UK's central bank will either cut interest rates or embark on a fresh round of quantitative easing.

If the BoE decide they need to take action in order to protect the UK economy against the country's decision to leave the EU then we could see the pound set for further losses, and could easily push the GBP/USD cross back under $1.30.

Do you need to buy or sell dollars?


If you have a requirement to buy or sell dollars in the coming weeks or months and are worried about how the Bank of England's actions could impact your currency requirement, contact me today for a free, no-obligation currency consultation.

As a specialist in currency exchange, I can help you navigate the ever changing FX market to ensure you make the most from our transfer.

To find out more about how I can help or would like to know what rate of exchange I can offer, complete the contact form on the right hand side of the page or call me directly on 0044 (0) 1442 892 065.



Monday, 1 February 2016

The pound recovers some lost ground.


Good morning,

After another volatile week the pound has started well this morning regaining most of the ground it lost to the U.S dollar on Friday.

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GBP/USD has risen from a low of 1.4182 which we saw on Friday afternoon to 1.4311 this morning, meaning the pound has clawed back nearly 0.85% within the first couple of hours of today's session.

GBP/USD graph


Why did GBP/USD fall last week?


The U.S. dollar's value climbed sharply on Friday following a surprise announcement from the Bank of Japan.  The BoJ applied a negative interest rate of -0.1% to some selected current account deposits causing investors to seek the safety of the U.S. dollar.

The move from the BoJ is similar to the action taken by the European Central Bank and will see the central bank charge financial institutions for holding funds with them.

We could also see more action from the BoJ in future as the bank said they are willing to push rates further into negative territory if required.

The dollar was also helped by the latest U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading on Friday afternoon which fell pretty much in line with the initial estimates. U.S. GDP grew 0.7% in quarter four and despite missing the forecast figure of 0.8% was close enough to prevent the USD losing any ground.

 

Do you need to buy or sell dollars?


If you have a requirement to convert funds either from or into U.S. dollars it is important to know what options are available to you. As a specialist currency broker I can help you target a specific rate of exchange or help or protect you against adverse market movements.

For more information about how I can help use the link below to complete the contact form or call me directly on 0044 (0) 1442 892 065.

Click here to complete the contact form.

Tuesday, 26 January 2016

The pound starts to claw back some ground

Good afternoon,

Since my last post the pound has managed to put a stop to the dollars advances clawing back around two and a half cents. Today alone has seen the GBP/USD cross climb from $1.4176 to a session high of $1.4345 as the graph below shows.

For a free currency consultation click here.

GBP/USD graph


With little out in terms of eco-stats it seems the focus has now turned towards the two day U.S Federal Reserve meeting. Tomorrow at 0700 (GMT) Fed Chair Janet Yellen will announce the central banks latest interest decision, which will be closely followed by her statement.

It is highly unlikely we will see the Federal Reserve implement another rate hike so soon, however it will be the statement which has the potential to cause some volatility in the FX markets.

The U.S. dollar could easily move in either direction tomorrow evening depending on what Chair Yellen has to say.

If the FOMC show any signs of concern following the recent global turmoil, falling oil prices and the possibility of cooling inflation then the dollar's value could easily fall. It will leave the pound in a prime position to take advantage and could push the GBP/USD cross back towards $1.45.

On the other hand if Ms Yellen drops any hints about when the next rate hike might take place and puts a positive spin on the state of the U.S. economy then we could see GBP/USD test the $1.41 mark we witnessed last week.

Contact me today.

If you are thinking of buying or selling dollars in the near future the last few weeks have proved once again just how quickly things can change.

During these volatile times it is more important than ever to know what options are available to help you make the most from your transfer.

As a specialist currency broker I have a number of different tools at my disposal. I can help you target a specific rate or protect you from further adverse market movements. For more information about how I can help or to find out what rate I can offer, use the link below to complete the contact form or call me directly on 0044 (0) 1442 892 065.

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Thursday, 21 January 2016

GBP/USD exchange rate falls below $1.41

Good afternoon,

Today saw the GBP/USD cross drop below $1.41 for the first time since 18th March 2009 hitting a low of $1.4087. After dropping continuously since early December things are not looking great for the pound and with the UK economy coming under pressure there is definitely a chance things could get worse before they get better.
 
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In the last six weeks the pound has lost nearly 7.5% against the greenback which can make a huge difference to your currency transfer. If we look at the move in monetary terms, converting £250,000 will now see you receive nearly $28,500 less compared to the same trade on 13th December.



Why could things get worse?

With so much uncertainty surrounding the global economy the dollar has strengthened massively over the past couple of months. Coupled with the Federal Reserve rate hike in December it has given investors an extra incentive to head into the U.S. dollar.

Although recent economic numbers suggest the U.S. economy might be slowing, the view within the market is that we will see at least one more rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year which could help strengthen the dollar even more.

With that in mind and the fact Mark Carney poured cold water on the Bank of England raising rates during his speech on Tuesday the door is wide open for the pound to sustain further losses across the board.

I for one would not be surprised if we saw the GBP/USD cross fall below the $1.40 barrier in the next few weeks. There are no positives on the horizon which I think will help the pound out of this current trend and if the currency pair falls into the $1.30's then it could take months before rates recover.

Do you have a dollar requirement?

If you are looking at buying or selling dollars in the coming weeks or months and want to ensure you are making the most from your transfer, contact me today for a free, no-obligation consultation.

Use the link below or call me directly on 0044 (0) 1442 892 065 to find out more.

Click here to complete the contact form.

   

Tuesday, 19 January 2016

The GBP/USD cross falls to its lowest levels for nearly seven years!


Good afternoon,

It was another torrid day for the pound, especially for those of you who are looking to purchase dollars in the coming weeks or months.

For a free currency consultation click here.

After a brief spike this morning following a better than forecast inflation reading the pound lost even more ground against the dominate U.S. dollar.

Earlier today the Office for National Statistics released the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and there was some good news for the UK economy. Inflation in the UK nudged up from 0.1% to 0.2% and gave the pound a much need boost.

On the back of the CPI report GBP/USD rose around half a cent to reach a high of $1.4333 but to say the gains were short-lived would be an understatement.
 
So what caused the decline?

Sterling suffered on the back of comments made by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, following his speech the pound went into free fall and lost ground against most of it's major counterparts.

Within a couple of hours the GBP/USD cross had lost the ground it had made during the early part of today's trading session and bottomed out at 1.4135, a loss of nearly 1.35% and the lowest we have seen the currency pair since March 2009.

GBP/USD graph


 
What did Mark Carney say?

Mr Carney has essentially ruled out an immediate rate hike because of the uncertainty and turmoil currently surrounding the global economy and UK growth.

Mr Carney said that with oil prices falling and an "unforgiving" global environment, tightening monetary policy in the UK was not necessary yet. This latest statement is another blow to the UK and pound as it was only during the summer of last year that Mr Carney said a rate rise was on the horizon.

Investors could not take any positives from the speech and quickly started dumping sterling in favour of other currencies, with the U.S. dollar and euro seemingly benefitting.

Do you need to buy dollars in the coming weeks?

If you have a requirement to buy dollars and are concerned about where the currency pair is heading, it vital to know what options you have available. As a specialist currency broker I have a number of tools available to help you make the most from your transfer and protect yourself against further adverse market movements.

For more information use the link below to complete the contact form or call me directly on 0044 (0) 1442 892 065.

Click here to complete the contact form.












Thursday, 14 January 2016

GBP/USD back over $1.44.....but for how long?

Good afternoon,

Well, it wasn't all doom and gloom for the pound today, the release of the Bank of England minutes and rate decision actually helped the pound......only slightly though.

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For the sixth straight month the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 8-1 in favour of keeping interest rates on hold. However it was the one vote from Ian McCafferty that helped push the pound back over $1.44 today.

As I have mentioned a couple of times the issues in China and poor UK economic have been weighing heavily on the pound in recent weeks. As a result there was a chance Mr McCafferty would change his stance and vote for rates to remain at the current level.

Fortunately for the pound and all GBP crosses that didn't happen and as the vote and minutes were released GBP/USD climbed from $1.4366 to $1.4444.


But let's not carried away, today's events are not going to push GBP/USD back towards the $1.50 mark. There is still more scope for the pounds value to drop even further and if the Federal Reserve look at raising rates again in the coming months the dollar could easily strengthen.

The UK economy is not out of the woods yet and the UK's inflation is figure is still miles away from the Bank of England's target of 2%.

Today's meeting minutes showed the central bank believe it will take longer than originally thought for the inflation figure to reach the required level and indicated that inflation was likely sit around 0.5% for a number of months this year.

Based this information I think we can safely say we won't see any action from the Bank of England this year, with many analysts predicting a rate hike will now come in the early part of 2017.

As we all know it is impossible to predict which way the markets will move but have seen in the last month how quickly things can change.

If you have a requirement to buy or sell dollars in the coming weeks and want to ensure you are making the most from your transfer, use the link below to complete the contact form or call me directly on 0044 (0) 1442 892 065.

Click here to complete the contact form.